Over the last month a couple of states have already begun pushes to regulate online poker or online gambling in general.
While a couple of states, specifically California and Pennsylvania, will make headway towards regulation, we believe many will not.
Today we look at the states likely to file an iPoker or iGaming bill in 2016 and their likely status.
Mississippi - Another Year, Another Committee Failure
While it hasn't happened yet the odds are high that Rep. Bobby Moak will file the Mississippi Lawful Internet Gaming Act of 2016. And like the last few years it will probably die a quick death in committee.
Moak told reporters last year that he believes that 2016 will be the year for serious discussion by the legislature in Mississippi but we've seen zero activity to back up that claim.
Until other states move forward and regulate the activity, Mississippi will sit back and wait.
Washington State - Still Way Too Soon
Washington State has already filed an online poker bill for 2016. HB 1114 was reintroduced last week with high hopes that online poker will become regulated.
Considering that Washington State is one of the few that actually criminalizes online poker, we believe that this is going to be a tough sell that will take several years to gain any momentum.
Our current view is that serious discussion here will not happen until California regulates online poker. Even then it may take a few years to get there.
Massachusetts - Omnibus Bill is Likely the Only Hope
Massachusetts jumped into the fray in December with its own iPoker bill and at the time we gave it zero chance of passing.
That's still our opinion - on the iPoker bill. However that doesn't mean iPoker is dead in that state. Lawmakers are now proposing an omnibus bill that would regulate most forms of online gambling, including online poker.
This bill is a direct response to the Daily Fantasy Sports crisis and its main goal is to regulate DFS. We believe that the omnibus bill is the only chance for iPoker in 2016 - and realistically anytime before 2018.
California - Election Year and Roadblock Issues Move Regulation to Next Year
Simply, we believe that 2017 is the year that California regulates online poker sites. This is an election year and that by itself will force some lawmakers to back away from anything that could hurt their candidacy.
However we still have the two roadblock issues standing in the way. This is the year that we finally get a compromise between tribes and the horse racing industry. It has to be done before the governor will agree to sign a bill.
Recent reports have claimed that the bad actor issue has become virtually moot because of the New Jersey licensing of PokerStars. We agree with this assertion.
Once the tribes and racetracks come to a compromise, we believe that the tribes will come to a consensus to let a bill move forward.
Pennsylvania - Only State Likely to Pass iGaming Bill in 2016
Barring an MA omnibus bill we believe that Pennsylvania is the only state that will pass an iGaming bill in 2016. It came close last year and if it can get certain amendments removed from the bill, we think it will push through at some point.
There's also an outside chance that it gets tacked onto the 2016 budget but at this point things will have to get desperate for that to happen.
We estimate that iGaming becomes legal sometime around the summer of 2016 with the first games going live sometime in the spring of 2017.
New York - Lawmakers Still Don't Care
New York is probably the last state that will file an iGaming bill that includes online poker. The problem is that we still don't see enough interest from lawmakers.
Last year's bill was filed last minute and mainly only happened so that a hearing could be held. While that hearing was positive, most lawmakers were uninspired by the concept.
We could see New York once again filing a bill last minute in 2016 in order to keep the issue "alive" but we don't expect any movement.
The state will need a nudge to move forward with iGaming. That nudge will come once Pennsylvania regulates online poker.
2017 could be an active year for iGaming regulation in New York.