Last week AB 431 became the first online poker bill to move out of committee in the state's history. While the bill remains primarily a shell bill, many hope that this is the bill the will eventually legalize online poker in California.
While the recent committee vote in favor of AB 431 was historic it by no means guarantees that the bill will pass. In fact, the window for its passage in 2015 is beginning to close with several key issues still needing to be addressed.
First Major Deadline Looming
Officially the first major deadline to pass a bill out of its house of origin is June 5.
This means that lawmakers would normally have less than a month less to pass the bill. Fortunately this bill is considered an urgency statute and doesn't adhere to these deadlines.
However, by June 5 we should be able to get more of a grasp as to whether this bill has a chance to pass in 2015.
A joint hearing of the Assembly and Senate GO committees is scheduled for May 20 and at this hearing stakeholders and agencies wanting a stake in online poker should be heard.
July 8 Could Reveal Where State Stands
After the May hearing there are hearings scheduled on June 24 and July 8 to discuss online poker in general and the other online poker bills under consideration in the Assembly.
The July 8 hearing could be when the best indicator as to whether online poker in 2015 is going to happen. By then what will be contained in AB 431 should be clear and the ultimate stance by the Pechanga Coalition known.
This gives parties almost two months to negotiate and lay groundwork for the bill and hammer out the final language. Odds are that if a consensus is not at least within reach by that time, it won't happen in 2015.
September 11 is Last Day to Pass a Bill
If lawmakers have any chance of passing a bill after the July 8 hearing, then expect a mad dash to happen in both houses to push this bill through by the September 11 deadline.
Such a push would mean that the two primary issues of bad actors and horse racetrack participation have been addressed and resolved.
The horse racing industry must have its concerns addressed before the Governor will sign any bill. Ultimately either the Pechanga will have to bend on its position or the racing industry must come to some type of compromise or revenue sharing agreement.
If a bill is not passed by September the process will start all over again next year.