As expected the 2015 California legislative session ended this past week without any further movement on iPoker regulation.
This means that for the eighth time since 2008, online poker has failed to pass in the Golden State.
Supporters of iPoker must now look forward to 2016 in hopes that some type of compromise can be reached among various stakeholders. Anything short of this will result in us having this same discussion next year at this time.
What Was Accomplished in 2015?
The past year was not a complete loss for the industry. There were many advances that provided supporters some hope that a bill will eventually pass.
First, we finally saw a bill move out of committee. The shell bill AB 431 was able to move out of the Assembly Governmental Organization Committee and the Assembly Appropriations Committee before being put on hold.
Next, we saw a softening of attitudes towards the bad actor clause. Caesars and the Rincon tribe were among those that are now supporting a PokerStars return to the United States and California.
Finally, we saw the Pechanga actually willing to compromise on one of their two big points of contention.
The Pechanga offered a pair of compromises to the horse racing industry that will allow them to participate in regulated iPoker but not actually operate a site.
These compromises were rejected but it shows that the Pechanga are willing to negotiate and this is something they have not been willing to do in the past.
What Steps Will Be Taken in 2016?
"Positive momentum" is a buzz word that online poker analysts have thrown around liberally with California in past years.
For once, this may be a time where it is applicable. While there's still a lot of work remaining before iPoker will become a reality in California, we have begun to see some signs that it is a possibility.
If the horse racing industry changes its mind regarding its role in the regulated marketplace then all that is left is to clear the issue surrounding PokerStars.
We believe that we are at a turning point regarding PokerStars and the next year could see the Pechanga either change course or possibly come up with a compromise over the PokerStars situation.
Various scenarios could play out regarding PokerStars operating in California, including a delayed entry into the state.
Ultimately we believe that some type of compromise will be reached that tribes will accept. The question is whether it comes in 2016 or a little further down the line.
We believe that the next six months will be very telling to the course of iPoker in 2016. Let's not forget that 2016 is a Presidential election year and that has a tendency to cause a slowdown in other legal areas.
Our estimate is that we will have an idea by March or early April whether California has a shot of legalizing online poker in 2016 or if a new President will be in office before Californians can legally play online poker.