Noted online gambling industry expert Steve Ruddock recently posted a piece on USPoker.com where he speculated that the state of Pennsylvania is key to the future of online gambling in the United States.
It is his belief that if Pennsylvania is unable to get online gambling passed by the end of next year, it will spell the end of the online gambling industry.
I don't share in Mr. Ruddock's projections regarding the industry and will give my reasoning why below.
Delaware Could Fold But Unlikely to Happen in Nevada
Ruddock projected that if the next state takes until 2017 or later to launch legal online poker, both Delaware and Nevada may no longer operate online poker.
It is certainly true that online gambling in Delaware has fell well short of any reasonable expectations for that state. Could Delaware decide to fold on iGaming? I will concede that is a possibility, but I don't see that happening in Nevada.
WSOP.com is really the only operator of note in the state and their integration with the World Series of Poker during the summer I feel will keep the site relevant regardless of what happens in other states.
I'm not sure whether Mr. Ruddock was trying to scare online poker supporters with his wild estimate but I would bet good money that Nevada will not fold in the next two years.
California WILL Regulate Online Poker - Eventually
Despite the process continually dragging on year-after-year, there has been enough progress each year to reasonably assume that online poker will become regulated in California at some point.
Naturally, the question remains WHEN will that happen?
Without other states pressuring stakeholders, I could see California hopping on board somewhere between 2018 and 2019.
I don't see significant progress being made during the 2016 election year unless another major state such as Pennsylvania goes online, thus pressuring stakeholders.
I do see 2016 as a year where lawmakers and tribes can possibly work on hammering out differences and maybe start coming up with compromises on the two main issues delaying regulation.
In the end, I don't see Pennsylvania being the litmus test for online gambling in the United States. While a bill's passage could help expedite matters, failure to pass a bill by the end of 2016 will only result in the pace of regulation remaining at a slow plod.